Where are the $2,000 tariff dividend checks?

The short answer is, there are NO checks!!!

A lot of people have been asking about their $2,000 rebate checks.  It's become reminiscent of the psychotic paper boy from the 1985 movie,"Better Off Dead"who goes to great lengths to collect his $2 fee. (Look up the clip if you haven't seen it, it's hilarious!)

Here's where the myth originated and where it currently stands:

Back in July, President Trump announced on social media that “We have taken in, and will soon be receiving, more than 600 billion dollars in tariffs.”  Then in November he floated the idea on Truth Social of making direct payments to Americans in the form of “A dividend of at least $2,000 a person (not including high income people!)”

The reality is that the president does not have the authority to fulfill that promise.  He would need congressional approval, which he is not likely to get.  According to Brett House, economics professor at Columbia Business School, “President Trump’s claim that the U.S. government collected $600 billion from tariffs in 2025 is incorrect.”  Estimates from the Customs and Border Protection agency, indicate that the U.S. only collected a little over $200 billion in customs duties in 2025.  Roughly one third of the money expected from the tariffs and money that congress has already allocated to other budget items. 

Will tariffs eventually replace the income tax?

Not likely - the math just doesn’t add up.  The Federal budget is currently at $6.8 trillion and even in full force, tariffs would only account for less than 10% of that. So, if congress does decide to issue so-called tariff dividend checks in 2026, they won't be financed by U.S. tariffs, and they won't be dividends. Just like the last few stimulus payments, they would be paid with borrowed funds that would increase the deficit and potentially trigger higher inflation.

As much as I would like to see an extra $2k in my bank account, I don’t like the idea of the Government going in debt by nearly a half trillion dollars to do it nor I don't like the idea of using the tax code to re-distribute wealth.  There is an outside chance that it could still happen but at this point it seems highly unlikely. 

Beware of scammers!

Thanks in part to the speed of (mis)information, there remains a lot of confusion around the rebate. Scammers are reaching out to people offering to help claim the tariff rebate for a fee. Don't be fooled, there is no rebate and they are just trying to take your money.

We believe the confusion arises from a couple of sources:  First, many taxpayers are already expecting higher refunds this year which is easy to confuse with a tariff dividend but is NOT the same thing.

Apart from a slight dip in 2020 the average IRS refund has been surprisingly flat for the past couple decades remaining right around $3,000. Thanks in part to the Big Beautiful Bill, we expect that to rise this year to nearly $4,000. Something we are already seeing in the opening week of tax season.

The second factor could also be the new $1,000 Trump Accounts for children born in 2026.  Parents must fill out form 4547 to receive the credit and scammers are offering to file the form for a fee.  Don’t fall for it!  The Tax Company will file that form free of charge for anyone who qualifies when we prepare your tax return. 

Bottom line - there is a LOT of false information out there.  Please do not fall for unscrupulous ads promising to get you big refunds or helping you apply for stimulus checks that do not exist!  And for heaven’s sake, do NOT talk to anyone on the phone claiming to be from the IRS.  If someone contacts you, ALWAYS reach out to one of our tax experts to find out if it's legitimate.

Stay safe out there my friends.